Jun 17, 2019
Welcome to FF –
RBA cash Rates are lower now – talk about flow on effects
Today – Will you get mortgage cuts, how your savings will be
affected, effects on the job market and wages.
Mortgage cuts
- Don’t expect the banks to pass on the Reserve Bank’s rate cuts
in full
- don’t assume your mortgage won’t become more expensive outside
any official rate movements.
- That’s the lesson to be learned from a “fascinating” graph that
compares how the big four banks have manipulated variable rates
against the official interest rate over the last three years.
- ANZ and Westpac refused demands from both sides of
politics to pass on the full 0.25 per cent cut announced by RBA
governor Philip Lowe last week.
- NAB and Commonwealth Bank customers will get the full reduction
in their mortgage interest payments
- but the comparison shouldn’t expect further savings if
another expected cut comes later this year.
- when the Reserve Bank moves down so do the banks but not always
by the full amount – the gap is getting wider
each announced they would lower interest rates on mortgages by
0.18 and 0.20 per cent respectively when 0.25% reduction
Bank subsidiaries and second tier banks - St George, Bank of
Melbourne, Bank SA and RAMS will pass on a 0.20 per cent cut to
their owner-occupier customers.
They are, however, cutting investor interest-only rates above
and beyond the RBA by 0.35 per cent.
Suncorp Bank has also announced it will cut all variable home
loan interest rates by 0.20 per cent, effective June 21.
Band of Queensland is only passing on 0.15 per cent, and Virgin
Money is passing on 0.22 per cent.
ING, Australia’s fifth largest home loan lender, chose to pass
the full 0.25 per cent cut on to their variable rate customers,
effective June 25, 2019.
Why?
- The cash rate reducing cycle went all the way back from
November 2011 to August 2016
- the banks to find themselves under a lot of margin pressure
when there have been multiple changes in cash rate
- “When the next rate cut comes, it’s going to be harder again
for the banks to pass on the full amount, in particular for the
banks that passed on the full amount this time around.”
- Also – have multiple sources of funding – it doesn’t all come
from Aus – so if money from USA – and their rates go up
- Doesn’t mean banks can reduce rates
Potential savings 4.32% to 4.07%
- 25% rate cute –
- $400k mortgage – 58 savings per month - $21k saved over 30
years
- $500k mortgage – 78 savings per month - $26k saved over 30
years
How to get – have to shop around – new rates and introductory
offers
- best things about being on a variable rate is that you’re well
within your rights to take your business elsewhere
- competition – compare what others are offering because
ultimately the effective rates of existing loans may not go down
much
- Reduce Home Loans is offering 3.19 per cent, Homestar 3.24 per
cent, Mortgage House 3.29 per cent and Athena 3.34 per cent.
- Do another episode on these online lenders – some are not banks
and what to watch out for
- Cheeky banks – even ones making a full cut like CBA and NAB –
wait 3 weeks to get
- Make $108.8 million by delaying the effective date of the
cut
Deposit rates – other side of the story -
- Commonwealth Bank and NAB have penalised savers a week after
passing on the RBA’s full interest rate cut to borrowers.
- Both banks have reduced the base rate on their online savings
accounts by 0.20 percentage points, leaving them at 0.30 per
cent.
- This leaves savings rates at rock bottom levels, and will put
the banks under intense pressure of funding
- This is due to lower savings if lower rates around being paid
- Human incentive to want higher returns
- Also - potential to squeeze profit margins of the banks
- will be keeping bank executives awake at night – how to meet
shareholder demands
- the prospect of negative interest rates - as seen in other
countries is starting to look more likely
- Where you have to pay the bank to put money into the
account
- See it in either booming black market economies (so much cash
not on books, like Miami in 80s)
- Or in deflationary economies – ones like Japan
- Unfortunately for savers and in particular self-funded retirees
– increased longevity risk – thanks to lower returns on cash
- Need people to plan out retirements more in advance now
Economy and employment
- Share market - The wider financial sector was trading 1.0 per
cent lower – thanks to the banks
- Westpac led the losses with a 1.24 per cent share price decline
to $27.78.
- Does this mean the overall market is going to go down? One of
two scenarios
- Money see monkey do – banks lead the market down – so people
sell in fear – but unlikely to last long
- Signs of a struggling economy – lower consumer spending so
lower business profits
- After all, the Reserve Bank was just forced to cut interest
rates to record lows
- do that because the economy is going poorly, not because it is
going well.
- Economic growth has been pitiful recently — under 2 per cent
for the past year.
- Wages growth is just 2.4 per cent and if inflation wasn’t so
low, wages would be falling in real terms.
- and the latest job ads plunge confirms that narrative - ANZ job
ads series, though, is to find out what hints it contains for the
vitally important labour force data — the job ads down about 8%
- May be flow on effect of things stopping in anticipation of the
election – wait and see if pick up
- decline in the job ads series can give us a bit more certainty
that the good times in the unemployment market are behind us
- the unemployment rate up about 0.3% since low in December
- underemployment rate - risen due to a surge in part-time
work.
- Not good signs - the general atmosphere of gloom around the
Australian economy
- The retail sector is already in recession, according to the NAB
business survey. And the positive post-election vibes around the
housing market seem to be wearing off too, with clearance rates
slumping back down in the most recent weekend.
- The labour market is clearly worsening – don’t think it was
ever as good as they believed, economists just weren’t paying
enough attention to wages and underemployment
- The RBA used employment as an excuse not to cut rates earlier –
but recent developments in the labour market now make them have to
change their minds
- Problem with the monetary policy - You want to make rate cuts
in advance of the problems cropping up – but it is always done
afterwards, because they take time to have their effect.
- Leaves the RBA spending their time catch up by cutting interest
rates at least one more time – but may be too little too late
- If drops of 3% haven’t helped, what will 0.25% do?
Summary and what to do:
- Good – slightly cheaper mortgages – slightly more to spend on
consumption (or paying loan down)
- One is good for the economy, while the other is good for the
household
- Bad – lower savings, lower margins for the financial sector,
signs of slowing growth on
- Shift on the demand for buying higher income payment assets
- Very low savings – so ‘safe’ blue chip shares are a preference
for some
- Credit contraction in the markets is the major risk to a
decline in the short term –
- Banks taking away loans or RBA increasing rates and contracting
the money supply
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