Jun 21, 2019
Welcome to Finance and Fury, The Furious Friday Edition
In this ep, we continue looking at the lucky country
look at a downward spiral in growth – low growth traps – and how
it is created by what is meant to help growth?
Low growth trap
– The big problem comes from just looking at the numbers – and
basing policy around models
- Major part of the modern economy – looking at the numbers – I
do it as well
- Numbers can be inaccurate, or misinterpreted – sometimes the
models being used for numbers don’t get the answers that were
expected
- Such as the RBA and rates – lowering them to boost the
economy
Nothing new as to why the RBA wants to drop rates
– major banks think it will go down to 0.75% -
- Looking to take action to help stimulate Australian economic
growth, employment, wage growth, etc.
- The question really is if this will work as the equilibrium
models suggest – based around neo-Keynesian
- We should be seeing a pick up in inflation (CPI) rates – which
is the trick – focus on a percentage which is ever compounding
under the current system – another episode
- At least – why aren’t we seeing GDP growth, improvement in
productivity or wages and employment?
- Big puzzle which almost every first world nation is trying to
solve at the moment – and economists
- First – look at Productivity – this measures the quantity of
the economy’s (or just a particular business’s) output of goods and
services relative to its inputs of raw materials,
labour and capital equipment – this is theory
- Productivity improves when a given quantity of inputs to the
production process is able to produce a greater quantity of goods
and services than before. It’s most commonly measured by reference
to just one of the inputs, labour. So, it’s output per
unit of labour, usually per hour worked.
- Main way to make workers more productive is to give them more
or better machines and structures to work with. That is, to invest
in more physical capital.
- Increasing workers’ education and training – “human capital” –
also makes them more productive: better able to work with more
sophisticated machines, to think of ways to make machines do better
tricks, and think of more efficient ways to organise the work
that’s done in a mine, farm, factory, office or shop.
- The main way to make workers more productive is to give them
more or better machines and structures to work with – this is what
theory says anyway – having something to measure
- In the present information and communication technology
revolution isn’t transforming the economy to the extent that
earlier general-purpose technologies – such as electricity, the
internal combustion engine, the automated production line, and even
running water and indoor toilets – did
- Why doesn’t the modern-day economy show the same levels of
productivity or growth as in the past?
- partial explanation - that much of the benefits coming from the
digital revolution are going unrecognised by a system of national
accounts (gross domestic product) designed to measure the
industrial economy
- Also - low population replacement rates – birth rates not
keeping up with the aging population
- If it keeps up - future of weaker growth in consumer spending =
lower incentive for firms to invest
- The increased complexity of a system requires a greater input
to receive the same result
- Example – some of the smartest people finding new ways to get
around laws/taxes – not picked up in GDP growth
- but for the most part – due to Modern economy – focus on
economies of scale for cost reduction – not massive R&D
projects
- (synergy between companies – merge) – creates very large
companies over time
- Apple – Jobs was an innovator – but just took existing
technology and made it much better for us to use – First smartphone
was by IBM more than 15 years before Apple released the iPhone
- Can see this in the share buybacks occurring – UBS and
Macquarie predicted Australian companies to do more share buybacks
in 2019 – if Labor won the federal election – Franking credits,
higher taxes – Dividends not valuable
- Not only doesn’t investor get that money to spend/invest – it
just inflates the share price of the company
- US businesses have been using their profits not to reinvest but
to pay big dividends and to buy back their shares on the stock
market, hoping to boost their price
What gets us out of this – Innovation
– continue to increase our ability to create and we will be fine
– new ideas, more people creating things that work to provide value
to others lives -
- This is where some policies have had dramatic effects on our
lives – the policy decision is working from an equilibrium model
that is long past it’s used by date
- I think for the worse- house prices as an example – thanks to
the compounding positive inflation rate target – very short-sighted
policy
- Theory: key to productivity improvement is investment –
particularly investment by businesses
- But to spur business investment – you need economic growth and
the expectation it will continue
- But it can’t include a thing like innovation into an
equilibrium model – could in a complex equation
- What the models are picking up –
- Innovation is fine, but the main way some new technology is
“diffused” throughout the economy is by firms replacing their old
machines and structures with new ones that incorporate the latest
advances.
- Business demand for new and better things spurs innovation – it
isn’t just big companies that innovate – it is small startups that
then get bought out by the big players – look at Alphabet, FB, etc.
– why innovate if you can buy?
- Innovation cant be forced – often accidents, or trying for one
thing and getting something else –
- But if you are aimed at one goal and don’t get the result you
want, you start again and disregard the by-product of the failed
attempt –
- The government doesn’t directly invent anything – they find
independent scientists and contract them to fund their research –
researchers dream – recruiting people to continue doing what they
were doing, but for you
- Investment is also an essential part of the continuous process
of change in the industry structure of the economy, where changes
in consumers’ preferences and other developments cause some
industries to contract while others expand and new industries
emerge.
- If firms are reluctant to invest, you don’t get enough
expansion to offset the contraction.
But what is businesses’ main motive for investing?
Their expectations of increased demand for whatever they’re
selling – marketing, higher production
- What happens to business investment when a recession/depression
occurs, or they think it might?
- The recovery has been particularly weak in the 2007/8 crash
compared to the great depression though
- Some of our GDP growth is the product of fiscal stimulus from
governments – either liquidity or spending packages
- Low unemployment conceals a marked fall in the proportion of
the population (particularly less-skilled middle-aged men)
participating in the labour force - given up looking for another
one - skills “atrophied” – loss of human capital to the Aus
economy
Get it? Weak economic growth in the advanced economies is
discouraging businesses from investing. Weak investment means weak
productivity improvement and skills atrophy. But weak productivity
means more weak growth.
- Business investment in physical capital, and growth in human
capital are key drivers of the economy’s “potential” growth rate in
future years.
- Neglect them and the economy loses its ability to grow – starts
to decline and go backwards –
- Or remain in a low-growth trap
What stops drive for innovation?
- No demand from companies for new and better products –
- Either no money to afford it – costs/taxes high or low revenues
= low profits
- Limited access – barriers to entry through regulations
- Short term focus on maximising GDP and shareholder values
-
- What compounds this - Protectionist policies – fight against
creative destruction
- Example - The invention of electricity – a much bigger event in
our human history than the internet –
- People were freaking out seeing Tesla use his body as a
conductive material to power a light bulb
- It also created unrest in labour markets – the reason why we
don’t see the leary’s dancing in the street going from gas lamp to
gas lamp (like Mary Poppins) – they were made redundant
- Think about it – 100% of our jobs today are vastly different to
the past – almost all don’t exist, but those that do are very
different looking – unless your job is to dress up like a
historical recreation
- Theory – if an economy is weak, you must help protect it
through subsidies or benefits
- These elements together just add to stagnation of the
economy
Summary
– low growth trap requires innovation – attracting the best and
brightest
Sadly – innovation is stagnated when so are the individuals who
would otherwise be innovating – through the choice
Why do you think Communist/socialists countries crumble in every
case – hard to innovate on a new engine you are working on when you
are moved to a collectivised farm and given one farm animal to
plough fields with – but you have to eat it as you don’t know
anything about farming –
Next episode will dive deeper into the concept of an inflation
trap – and policies to get out of it
Thanks for listening, if you want to get in contact, you can do
so here.