Jul 20, 2018
For the last few weeks we have been talking a lot about the
economy; the Reserve Bank, printing money, and now we will be
finishing off by talking about the final effect of this – Interest
Rates.
Today, we ask the question; Are low interest rates
actually a good thing?
Well, I guess it depends on who you’re asking…
- The Economy as a whole
- The population – you and I
- Retirees – Low rates don’t look so good – they’re trying to
save money in cash to live their lives out. But they’re not really
getting ahead when accounting for inflation – the real return on
money is close to zero. They’re actually going backwards
- Younger people – it’s great for borrowing because it’s cheap to
do so.
- But in the long run it’s not so good for affordability. As
people borrow more money, they can artificially afford to buy
more…affordability over all isn’t as good, so the real value of
money decreases.
Interest rates
- Nixon in 1971 – Ended the Bretton Woods system and the last
days of currency being tied to gold. The Reserve/Central Banks can
just go ahead and print more money and control interest rates that
way.
- Monetary system – Fiat currency – printing money and control of
the supply (interest rates)
- We have talked about the control of money supply by the reserve
banks
in this other episode
- Our economy over all doesn’t operate as a purely free market as
rates are very heavily controlled - the free market for interest
rates is gone
- Interest rates are no longer allowed to fluctuate naturally.
The central banks, in their wisdom, have capped them!
What are interest rates currently?
- 50% Interbank rate – set by the RBA
- Then separately, there is the rate that banks lend out at: the
commercial rate.
- Low rates means we can borrow more – Simple!
In the Economy: What do low rates lead to?
- Price rises
- Inflation – More money, more being spent, increase in prices of
goods
- When money is printed at high rates, with no domestic and/or
international demand for that currency to suck it up, the result is
Hyperinflation (real devaluation)
- Asset bubbles - Transfer of assets
- Artificially higher overall asset values (e.g. property)
- Low rates lead to an artificial share market rise
- Valuation of shares is based off the risk-free rate – Bonds and
long term cash rates
When rates go up, shares go down – Free cash flows
- Currency
- When domestic rates are high compared to those of other
countries, it attracts foreign investment – Back in 2012 – High
rates, high demand on the currency, high AUD
- They don’t determine fully, but play a role
- Savings:
- Where is the incentive to save? If you can only earn 2%
interest on your cash savings, and inflation is at 2%, then why
bother saving?
- Increase of money supply = Banks lend more = Increase money
(our
last episode).
- Cheap money = Increase in credit = No savings
- If you could earn 10% interest on your savings you’d likely
save more because your money is working for you, as opposed to
going backwards.
- Savings (deposits) can then be loaned out rather than the
Reserve Bank printing money to prop up lending (Deposits at banks
being the cash reserves)
- Savings are declining:
- Back in the 1980’s savings were about 20% of disposable
income
- 0% in 2002
- At the end of 2009, this increased to about 14-15%
- However now we’re back down to close to 2%
- There’s no savings and people are putting their lives on
credit
- Only way to increase the supply of savings is to increase rates
- Need to increase supply through higher rates incentivising
people to save
Let’s take a look at what happens in very low interest rate
environments. A good example is Japan, and their current zombie
economy;
- Late 1980s – Japan went through massive growth periods, but it
was a bubble.
- There was a tripling of land prices and stock market prices
during the prosperous 1980’s. Post-WW2 they were one of the most
productive economies in the world.
- The Bubble burst around 1991
Liquidity Trap
- A situation in which monetary policy is unable to lower nominal
interest rates because these are already close to zero, and there
is no control in this way to stimulate the economy.
- Therefore, you can’t stimulate the economy and you can’t drop
rates further
- Negative interest rates mean it actually costs money to keep
your savings in the bank
- Interest rate has remained below 1% since 1994
The financial institutions:
- They have been bailed out through capital infusions from the
government, loans and cheap credit from the central bank (we have
talked about this time and time again)
- This postpones the recognition of losses, ultimately turning
them into ‘Zombie’ Banks
- Zombie Banks are essentially dead – no real asset value – very,
very, low economic growth
- When low growth occurs, there are lower tax revenues for the
government, which is a problem because they have debts! For
example, government bonds (which are just debt instruments).
These are bought by the RBA, banks, other countries, or by
individual people.
- One solution is to raise taxes to try and pay back Gov
Debt
- Stimulus leads to Debt to GDP – 240%
- Australia is at about 43% now
If low rates are good, then 0% would be better,
right?
- ZIRP – Zero interest-rate policy: associated with
- Slow Economic growth – easy money leads to decrease in required
productivity
- Deflation – Decrease in the price of goods and services =
Increase in real value of debt
- Deleverage – Decrease in debt. When economy RUN on debt
however, a severe recession is very, very, likely.
- Exactly what has occurred in Japan for the past 20 years
Monetary and Fiscal Policy
- Fiscal policy negates a lot of monetary policy
- A truism of the political system is that to win an election
there is no point giving the electorate the facts about how things
work. You’re much more popular if you tell the population you’re
going to give out free money!
Australia needs serious productivity and innovation
reform …not cheap money.
- To pay for things the government can either tax you, or borrow
money (which they will need to tax you to repay anyway)
- Increased welfare increases reliance on the fiscal policy side
of things, whilst negating monetary policy.
- There is a burden and over taxation on the productive side of
the economy. This disincentivises production. Why be more
productive if you’re only going to get taxed more?
So, if you don’t produce anything, you don’t get taxed. You
produce too much, you lose half of it. This decreases incentives -
Why borrow/save and start business if you will be taxed to
death!?
- This is the same with home deposits – there’s no real incentive
because it takes so long to save up the required amount with
property prices so high. As well, there’s no real return on your
money. If you’re keeping it in cash (the best way to save for a
home deposit) you’re not getting a real interest return – property
prices are going up at a greater rate than what cash rates
currently are.
The solution to this isn’t popular
- No government is suicidal in terms of their political careers.
It’s all about being popular. They refuse to give up and accept
defeat – instead they just keep plugging the dam.
- Without a free market for interest rates there’s no ability for
the economy to respond – No feedback loop
- It’s pretty hard for a few people to use the crystal ball and
tarot cards to set rates as there are millions of factors
Summary
Lower rates get, the further into the hole we go. Currently, at
1.50% we have a LITTLE wiggle room.
BUT, if a large economic downturn occurs though, the RBA won’t
have the same ability to drop rates like they have before.
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