Jul 27, 2018
Welcome to Finance and Fury! The main aim of our Furious Friday
editions is to clear up misconceptions. We’ve been seeing a lot of
news stories lately about companies underpaying staff – 7-Eleven,
hospitality businesses, celebrity chefs etc.
The incidence of this has risen over the past few years – why
can’t these people just pay the legal wage?
This episode may be a bit upsetting depending on what side of
the coin you’re looking at…we’re talking about wage controls, that
is, Minimum Wages. Are they good or bad?
What are minimum wage laws?
Regulation/body of law which prohibits employers from
hiring employees for less than a given wage
Australian History
- Basic Wage since 1907, which wasn’t quite as strict as what it
is now. More of a prescription, or suggestion, rather than enforced
legislation.
- 14 December 2005, the Australian Fair Pay Commissionwas
established
- The Australian Fair Pay Commission was replaced by Fair
Work Australiain 2010, and since then there’s been a significant
rise in the minimum wage level.
- Base rates
- October 2007 - $13.74 per hour
- 1 July 2018 - $18.93 per hour
- Casual rates get an additional 25% loading
- GRAPH: Wages normalised to 2018 value
So, is this good or bad? – There’s always two sides to
every coin
- The minimum wage law does not create any new jobs.
- Prohibits employment relationships that offer wages within a
certain prescribed range (low paying jobs, for instance) – sounds
awful to say but some jobs are worth $18.93 per hour
- This prohibits employers and employees deciding between them as
to what the pay rate should be
- Employment is mobile – people in high demand are headhunted for
higher wages
- Commentators argued - contrary to prevailing economic theory,
minimum wages increase overall employment
- Money in pockets of workers flowing to greater spending in
economy
- Greater demand for goods and services, therefore there should
be more employment to meet this demand….
- But what about supply? That may have the opposite effect, as
labour costs go up
- Less potential labour used
- And/or, as costs go up, so do prices
Let’s unpack this by looking at the two sides; Employees
(those who are getting paid), and Employers (those who are doing
the paying)
Employees - The effects: What happens when minimum wages
are introduced
- For existing employees
- The employer decides to either raise wages, or to terminate the
employment
- It’s easier to raise the wage, as it is actually quite costly
to terminate in Australia
- So, it’s good for existing employees
- What about Future employees
- Creates productivity bar (employers need to make sure that
employees are worth it)
- This is an issue for two groups of employees – Young market
entries, lower skilled positions who are priced out of a lot of
roles in the economy.
The productivity bar: You need to get what you pay
for
The prerequisites for employment increases – how is this
measured? By a piece of paper, known as a Degree.
But when everyone has something, it becomes less valuable – this
is the same with education and means a devaluation of education in
the long term.
- Higher wages increase need for competition in your skills (or
perceived skills)
- Not everyone can be employed – if an employer has $60,000 for
wages the want to make sure they get the most qualified person that
amount.
- Need to get a degree for what used to be an entry level
position without one
- 2011 to 2016 saw massive jump in education levels
- Grad Diplomas (28%)
- Bachelor degrees (24%)
- Biggest increase is in post grad degrees (46%) – It seems
bachelor degrees are now the new high school diplomas
- But if there is no employment that matches your degree – you
feel like doing something else is beneath you
- My example: Studied for 5.5 years – being naive, I thought this
put me above the curve. After searching around, I came to realise
that I was still entry level. So, I started on $50,000 – working
about 60-70 hours a week - $14.88 per hour
- Some other examples, like some of my friends: Grads in Law and
Audit - $40-50k as well and working similar hours
- This is where those who are young, without degrees, will
struggle to find work.
- Skipping back 20-30 years ago these entry level positions
didn’t require you to have a degree.
What the stats say - Employment levels
Lot of studies find that minimum wages are statistically
insignificant regarding their effect on employment overall – that
is, they don’t create much of a change.
This is true when you look at it in aggregate. As we just
touched on, it’s hard to fire existing employees when minimum wages
go up. But…
- The employment rate only factors in those who are looking for
work
- Those who can’t get a job in the existing job market and so
stop looking for one, are no longer are counted as unemployed
- Underemployment – Those who are employed, but can’t get enough
work – are still counted as employed
- Employers cut their hours
- Unemployment rate around 5.4% - Includes those actively looking
for work
- Underutilisation rate includes underemployment – 13.7%
- Including unemployment = 20%
- For example: US Gas crisis – price control/ceiling on petrol –
almost the same amount of gas was sold, but the number of hours
that service stations were open decreased, from around 100 hours
per week to 20 hours.
Employers - Factors
- Costs (Labour)
- Break even costs – Some jobs aren’t profitable to employ people
in now
- Higher wages – costs go up for production of goods, which gets
passed onto consumers and negates the overall rise in wages. How?
Price increase in what we buy!
- Industries, like manufacturing, then go offshore (drop of 24%
in manufacturing jobs over 2011 to 2016)
- Index points, as far as labour costs go, steadily increased
from 45 in 1988 to 100 in 2010
- Since 2010 it has been flat – Labour costs have normalised –
Forced to pay salary – so not much voluntary increase since
then
- But the costs still go up – People from overseas think
Australia is expensive, and it is!
- Show me a country with high wages and low costs of living and
I’ll be very surprised. The two are very closely related.
- Productivity and the ways that businesses actually operate
- The switch to “capital intensive” over “labour intensive”
goods. Hence, the drop-in manufacturing
- There is a lot of the talk is about how technology is replacing
human capital – which happens when it costs too much. Minimum wages
speed up the process.
Summary:
Overall, the jury is out on the effects of minimum wages -
however there is consensus for the young or lower skilled:
- Thomas Sowell - argues that this policy hurts those who it is
designed to help the most – lower entry workers
- Evidence shows that the overall unemployment level is often
unaffected, people employed in low-skill and low-paying positions
experience greater adverse effects
- OECD study also said the results of its research suggested that
a rise in the minimum wage had a negative effect on teenage
employment.
- Many European economies introducing or increasing the minimum
wage have experienced increased unemployment in low-skill, low-pay
positions
- Andrew Leigh - historical employment data on increases in the
minimum wage in WA, relative to employment in the rest of
Australia.
- found that increases in the minimum wage in WA were followed by
reductions in employment
- most pronounced among young people, where the minimum wage had
a large effect on labour demand.
- The results of this research found a consistent negative
relationship between the minimum wage and labour demand (i.e., when
the former is increased, the latter decreases).
- Add to the cost of living increasing – These policies sound
nice in theory but…
- No-one wants to see people struggling.
- But imagine that the Government forced a wage for one role of
$1M compared to $25,000 previously
- That is 40 less people employed, but costs are still going up
for the production/employment
- A lot of younger Australians spend 3 or 4 years to get a
degree, get out of uni with $40k in debt, just to get into the
workforce. In this way there may be some additional harm being
done
Thanks for listening!